Oceans Yet to Burn

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

2020

Just for the record, regarding immigration issues: I feel that the current rate of roughly 1,000,000 immigrants per year is roughly acceptable for the United States.  (My statements elsewhere might have implied that I thought this was too high.)  I’m not particularly worried about most of the categories of immigrants currently arriving in the US.  I could be convinced for a higher number under certain conditions I won’t elaborate on now, partially because I don’t think they can credibly be offered due to political conditions in the United States, including ideological pre-commitments.

I predict at 80% that Trump will not lower the yearly immigration level below 800,000 by the year 2020.

I cannot accurately forecast the numbers on refugees.  The Trump administration originally planned to be more selective about refugee groups (particularly persecuted religious groups that are religious minorities in their country of origin), so we may see them make a grab for Christian refugees from ISIS, supposing some sort of support infrastructure (such as American churches) were set up to take them.  Alternatively, they may not, and the number of refugee admissions may crash.  I predict at 60% that average annual refugee admissions from 2017-2020 will be lower than under the Obama administration.

I predict at 80% that there will not be a new American Middle Eastern war by 2020, so long as Trump remains President and there is no major attack on US soil, defined as an ideologically-motivated terrorist attack with a death count exceeding 100.  (For the purposes of this prediction, American forces returning to Iraq and Afghanistan does not count as a new war.)

I predict at 80% that at least one more Sikh is going to get killed by some moron in America for ideological reasons before 2020.

I predict at 70% that one person will die from either Antifa violence, or violence by Antifa rivals by 2020, and this will make the national news.  I predict at 90% that this will not be intentional.

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

@xhxhxhx You are known for your longposts.  Do you have any evidence that emigration from countries addresses the conditions that caused people to emigrate in the first place, particularly near to our modern era?  For instance, does it appear to lower fertility or improve institutions (possibly measurable by corruption perceptions or ease of doing business, maybe GDP/cap)?

If there’s good evidence for it, that would favor increased immigration, but if there’s good evidence against it… well, that’s pretty damn tough, as it would probably favor some kind of weird semi-colonialism, but I have some thoughts about ecological tariffs paid to developing countries that could be more developed…

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

@argumate

admittedly even if Japan took a ton of immigrants there would still be plenty left over, so it’s kind of just being used as a debate trump card, like right of return for Palestinians to Israel.

At this point I’m inclined to agree with proposals to just split the Palestinian territory between neighboring countries other than Israel.

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

For the record, my conception of Nationalism is multiracial, rooted in a group identity based on culture, ideology, and reciprocal loyalty rather than race.

Each nation has a different immigration policy best suited to it.  I don’t consider the racism in various nations good, even if I think restrictive immigration policy is suitable for that country.

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

[argumate]

btw what is the Official Counterpoint to Japan not taking immigrants?

is it that their circumstances are different, or that they’re just super racist and not an example to emulate?

[shieldfoss]

Japan is super racist.

I honestly did not think this point was up to any debate at all.

I deal with this problem by not trying to move to Japan, they can be as racist on their own island as they want.

[mitigatedchaos]

Yeah, but that hits a wall under the modern moral climate, where it’s implicitly argued that foreigners have a right to immigrate to, essentially, anywhere, but particularly to developed nations.  The idea of “the Japanese on their own island” has the audacity to suggest collective ownership of a nation-state for the benefit of an exclusive group - the old Nationalist model.

A model that I actually approve of, minus the racism, but one that now would mark me as right-wing, even though I don’t consider myself right-wing.

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

[argumate]

btw what is the Official Counterpoint to Japan not taking immigrants?

is it that their circumstances are different, or that they’re just super racist and not an example to emulate?

[mitigatedchaos]

I’ll have you know that the Japanese are proud People of Color™, and it isn’t the standing of White Imperialists such as yourself to question the wisdom of the Might Japanese Emp–

**coughing**

No, they’re considered racist but either you’re not supposed to talk about it as much because they’re Asian, or it just isn’t considered as important because they aren’t Western.  The plan of the Japanese government itself is to just send large amounts of money instead.

However, since the country is so safe that their children can routinely commute to school on their own, I can’t really say that I disapprove (edit: of the nationalism and low immigration, not the racism).  Not every place in Asia needs to be Singapore.  

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

express.co.uk

Denmark's right-wing anti-migrant leader Pernille Vermund 'polling well ahead of election' | World | News | Express.co.uk

[mitigatedchaos]

rocketverliden:

I personally believe that doing…that…will itself lead to a counter-reaction, because it’s becoming clear that most rational people are otherwise disgusted by the actions of populists, and perhaps there will emerge a figure capable of realigning interests towards a saner future, all other ideas having been exhausted. That person would know exactly how to play to people’s self-interest or even selfishness while directing it to the goals they want to achieve. 

The current situation is itself a reaction to the fact that multiculturalism as practiced and often preached is, well, contradictory.  Either culture matters, in which case immigration rates and assimilation are important, or it doesn’t, in which case there is no actual point to “diversity”.  The situation held with previous immigrant groups because differing conditions prevailed at the time, but now it’s being stretched to the breaking point.  While you might see “the most rational people” being otherwise disgusted, from what I’ve seen, a lot of people are shifting to the Right and the Left has ideologically blocked itself from actually addressing any of the problems because anyone who actually starts talking about it will be shouted down as one of the “deplorables.”

I mean honestly, they’re cheering on demographic destiny and population atrophy.  They’re getting the backlash of people realizing that the plan is to replace them, and well, they don’t want to be replaced.

I don’t see that changing soon, unless Neoliberalism implodes and the Left starts taking seriously Islam and some associated cultures to task for all of its problems.  They killed Melting Pot for being evil and “racist.”  Why would they bring it back?

rocketverliden:

And why the appeal to political power? Your worst enemy will likely gain power after you’re gone. Sometimes the problem with politics doesn’t necessarily seem to be structural inertia, but down to the intelligence of actors within the structure.

The utility of plans must be considered based on their probability of actually being implemented, and the Left intends to use mass immigration to secure a permanent majority.  I didn’t used to believe this, but it’s far too consistent with their behavior.  We’re already playing with political power.

Also?  I don’t see any way of increasing the intelligence of actors in the system in my country.  At least not one that would actually go through.  The necessary structural reforms are either not sexy enough, or would be overruled because people are apparently legally too stupid to rank candidates in order or something along those lines.

rocketverliden:

If anything, I think this roundaboutism could contribute to the problems it’s trying to avoid. For all we know, school vouchers don’t actually solve the problem of the job market selecting for collegiate prestige over quality of education, nor the problem of college costing exorbitant amounts of money.

That’s not what the school vouchers are for.  They’re for the kinds of K-12 systems where performing well in school is criticized as “acting white” by peers.

rocketverliden:

Reducing immigration doesn’t stop rich fat cats sending jobs overseas to places where they can pay less for the same labor, 

It tightens the labor market at home, though, and they’re about to cut down on the indentured labor of H-1Bs.  An ACTUAL solution to that is not on the table and you know it.

Edit: Oh, and also, they’re actually on the verge of doing something about the trade deficit, which would have an effect on that.  The rival Globalists are against doing anything like that, because who needs nations anyway right?

rocketverliden:

or solve the problem of why we keep sending troops to die in pointless wars.

Again, actual solution not on the table.  If the Orange Man avoids getting us into another war, however, I will consider it a success that saves us $1 trillion.

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

express.co.uk

Denmark's right-wing anti-migrant leader Pernille Vermund 'polling well ahead of election' | World | News | Express.co.uk

[slartibartfastibast]

Stupid Danes just don’t understand how all that rape helps their economicses. Everyone needs to have lots of economicses. Rape isn’t very quantifiable (because that would be offensive) and therefore doesn’t exist. But economicses exist. There are courses in school about them. Have you raised all your boat sails with my Keynesian theories of human trafficking? If you sell one child per family you can fund AI research. People aren’t real. When do I get my hedonium implants? Why are people so mad about rape when we will all soon get hedonium implants?

How many utilons can be exchanged for one rape?

[isaacsapphire]

This is a mindset that I’m finding very frustrating, in that I’m having difficulty categorizing it. Is it a reasonable, rational understanding of actual conditions? Is it xenophobic dog whistles, predictable playing on the existing memes of “furiners gonna rape our women”/miscegenation threat?

What are the underlying issues here? Increased pressure from refugees/migrants from the Middle East (not all of whom are Muslim)? The impending population decline? A sudden rise in giving a shit about rape?

WTF is actually going on? Because everyone seems to be going around with blinkers on, cherry picking and building echo chambers and rubbing themselves with factually incorrect memes.

[slartibartfastibast]

Memes about how everyone is biologically identical and culture is arbitrary reached peak signalling potential and then the same portable media tech that motivates opportunist migrants also made it impossible to cover up the horrifying consequences of importing them (we used to be able to nip those stories in the bud, or obfuscate perp details).

Also, Merkel lost her mind and imported a million and a half people that immediately started raping the locals.

Rotherham also hit the news in 2014, so that didn’t help.

[rocketverliden]

Okay.

Okay.

Look, I get you have this whole…complex about the migrant question in Europe. I get it. You think the truth’s been buried all this time and now people are getting their comeuppance for the folly of trying to be humane to others.

But I also see you like to conflate rationalist/transhumanist language with memes about “liberals,” and at this point, I think it’s clear that you’ve become so jaded that you might as well be a full-fledged member of the alt-right, because only alt-right people do shit like that.

“How many utilons can be exchanged for one rape?“ I dunno, but it costs $0.00 to not be an asshole, so there’s that

[slartibartfastibast]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/child-sex-abuse-gangs-could-5114029

I’d rather be an asshole than enable a bunch of violent child rape through ironic detachment. Stop defending the priesthood in the 80s. You’re a religious zealot…

[rocketverliden]

I’d also recognize that if I became a wonk about Catholic priests molesting children, I’d probably look like one of those asshole atheists, and to be quite honest, that’s not a look I’d like.

You fall into the trap of believing that stopping one piece of the problem will backsolve and fix everything, when, no, actually, the solution might be to instead to remind migrants that Westerners are strange people with strange customs and to enforce the same laws you’d enforce on a white man (or enforce on the white man the same laws you’d enforce on a non-white non-male).

[mitigatedchaos]

The political will for your proposed solution does not appear to exist, and multiculturalism seems as though it will actively fight to stop your solution from being implemented.  How will you create the political will for this?  If it fails, what is your backup plan?

School vouchers have political momentum in the US now because it’s cheaper politically to use them to route around the fact that schools can neither effectively punish problem students, nor exclude them, preventing the other students from getting a good education.  It probably isn’t the best solution, but it may actually be politically feasible.  It seems some kind of intelligent immigration and law enforcement policy isn’t actually on the table, so using right-wing populists to slow immigration to levels more in line with rates of assimilation and undermine the cultural left, Globalism, and multiculturalism itself seems more feasible.

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

[argumate]

Remember: capitalism and white male supremacy go hand in hand.

I don’t know why I feel compelled to push back on this statement every time I see it, but I guess maybe because it’s irritatingly wrong?

Presumably capitalism has been in steady decline since the emancipation of women and the civil rights act and the end of apartheid and

[mitigatedchaos]

Capitalism is nothing but a tool of the Chinese to suppress ethnic Malaysians! It is absolutely inherent that it happens to favor that racial group specifically! There can never be such a thing as Capitalism that doesn’t favor the Chinese!

Uh, I mean, uh, white people, right…

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

express.co.uk

Denmark's right-wing anti-migrant leader Pernille Vermund 'polling well ahead of election' | World | News | Express.co.uk

[slartibartfastibast]

Stupid Danes just don’t understand how all that rape helps their economicses. Everyone needs to have lots of economicses. Rape isn’t very quantifiable (because that would be offensive) and therefore doesn’t exist. But economicses exist. There are courses in school about them. Have you raised all your boat sails with my Keynesian theories of human trafficking? If you sell one child per family you can fund AI research. People aren’t real. When do I get my hedonium implants? Why are people so mad about rape when we will all soon get hedonium implants?

How many utilons can be exchanged for one rape?

[isaacsapphire]

This is a mindset that I’m finding very frustrating, in that I’m having difficulty categorizing it. Is it a reasonable, rational understanding of actual conditions? Is it xenophobic dog whistles, predictable playing on the existing memes of “furiners gonna rape our women”/miscegenation threat?

What are the underlying issues here? Increased pressure from refugees/migrants from the Middle East (not all of whom are Muslim)? The impending population decline? A sudden rise in giving a shit about rape?

WTF is actually going on? Because everyone seems to be going around with blinkers on, cherry picking and building echo chambers and rubbing themselves with factually incorrect memes.

[slartibartfastibast]

Memes about how everyone is biologically identical and culture is arbitrary reached peak signalling potential and then the same portable media tech that motivates opportunist migrants also made it impossible to cover up the horrifying consequences of importing them (we used to be able to nip those stories in the bud, or obfuscate perp details).

Also, Merkel lost her mind and imported a million and a half people that immediately started raping the locals.

Rotherham also hit the news in 2014, so that didn’t help.

[mitigatedchaos]

Additionally, while conservative types may not want to pay the price of shifting the burden of evidence on rape cases, lowering the number of immigrants from high risk populations for it is a very cheap price to pay for them. After all, they don’t need to bring in huge populations while ignoring cultural differences just to show how fiercely not-racist they are.

And, while Marxists may use the language of ideological contradictions, they aren’t the only ones who can notice them. Setting aside the whole issue of genetics, as I think culture is sufficient and I’m committed to a multiracialist civic nationalism anyway: Liberals/Leftists have been treating culture as not mattering at all (when they import foreigners) yet mattering a lot when they fight to change it locally (eg, quit oppressing the gays)! This is accomplished in part by pretending the host nation’s majority culture isn’t actually a culture (“white ppl don’t have a culture”) including the meta-culture use to assimilate immigrants into American-style Food Court Ethnicity! …and then they attack the engine of assimilation, insisting that it’s unfair to demand people give up parts of their culture. But if culture doesn’t actually matter, as the earlier positions imply, then there is no reason to seek “diversity” in the first place. It’s incoherent.

…but people were socially prohibited from noticing it was incoherent, until the weight of the contradictions was enough under the mass migration in the EU that people couldn’t stand to pretend that all cultures are equal anymore. It’s perhaps a close enough fit for Western Europe, but it sure isn’t one globally. And since noticing it was suppressed before, and they’re still trying to suppress it now, there is a backlash.