I take some exception to the very term ‘unskilled labor’ as a general term, because agricultural work is not 'unskilled’ and neither were the various manufacturing jobs that often replaced them. These are not skill sets that have cross over. So we start off with that error, but I’ll say right now I can already see you’re missing my point, but I’ll get to that.
They’re both skillsets which don’t require as much training or IQ. Putting someone to work on an assembly line is not something which requires a four year degree’s worth of education (though I’m sure you’ll argue that the training isn’t really required, regardless of whether it is) and an IQ over 110.
The flaw here is comparing an animal who was used for an end (horses) and the animal that built the system (humans.)
In other words, the human beings will change the system away from purist Capitalism before it destroys them and replaces them with a more economically efficient form of matter. Capitalism does use people for ends. Employment is an unwanted side effect of production that so-called “job creators” do not actually want.
That is even putting aside the idea that somehow machines will become intelligent and adaptable enough to displace workers in the first place, a reality that is likely not nearly as close as we think.
It doesn’t need to displace all workers, just those with an IQ below some amount, in order to cause problems with mass unemployment. As for how close it is, well, factories in China are performing layoffs in favor of automation, warehouses are getting factor 5-6x reductions in staff, it’s hitting lawyers with tools for document search, and doctors, and so on.
You have to remember that even if jobs still exist, the number of applicants kicked out of other sectors can drive down the wages to unsustainable levels because the amount of most categories of services actually needed by the economy are limited. (eg, if a typical plumber can fix X pipes per hour, and there are Y pipes needed per person normally without much more gain from Y+1 pipes, then the number of plumbers that it’s beneficial to have is limited.)
Indeed, there is a flaw that even if we did, the idea we’d be able to replicate the human way of thinking is itself improbable.
“A computer will never defeat human masters at Go. Surely that can’t happen, it’s far too intuitive of a game.”
And, computers don’t actually have to think like humans to displace human workers. They often come at things in ways we would consider sideways.
And the idea that it would happen and suddenly penetrate every industry simultaneously is itself flawed.
By and large, computers have penetrated every industry over the last several decades. Suggesting robots won’t penetrate almost every industry at once is almost proposing that capitalists will simply leave money on the table and that capitalism is not efficient.
Further, I think you’re also missing the point by your claim that this is based on an ideological pre-commitment to Capitalism, to which I’d argue, as opposed to what? The flaw here is capitalism, which is private ownership of 'capital’ (really, property, as the designation of capital is frankly arbitrary) and the exchange there of with other private individuals. At its core, it is an expression of individual rights. The only other option would be a disregard for individual rights, and implicitly authoritarianism of some form or another. I’m an individualist, I’m anti-authoritarian, therefor, I am capitalist, not the other way around
If participation in the market is necessary for survival, then participation in the market is not truly voluntary. It doesn’t matter that a specific agent isn’t holding the gun to mandate it - it is nonetheless mandatory. Capitalism is just another form of hierarchy, and ideal Capitalism does not and cannot exist. Of course, individual rights are purely an intermediate node, too, and always were.
Put simply, Capitalism is an amoral (not moral or immoral) resource production and distribution algorithm. Its moral value derives purely from its consequences. Treating it any other way is bound to cause disappointment.
I also think you’re arguing something I don’t believe and never have. I would argue that folks may very well hire humans out of their desire to do so, as humans are not and never have been homo economicus, but that is largely an aside to the real point.
The relative popularity of check-out kiosks at grocery stores, and other low-human-contact services such as internet retailers trouncing brick and mortars, suggest that this is limited to a niche appeal only… sort of like horses.
My real point is actually that whatever the next revolution is, the ability to predict its effects is likely beyond any living human in any real capacity, in the same way that predictions for the Industrial Revolution were themselves largely impossible until we passed into it and could adapt to the particulars of it. I largely think doomsaying can be set aside because it seems to disregard that humans will shape the system to suit humans.
…by passing laws to make it not purist Capitalism anymore.
And what, exactly, is the alternatives? No one seems to have proposed anything somehow forestall this supposed doom of robots taking our jerbs. The supposed 'fixes’ are little more than rehashes of old policies that didn’t work then and won’t work now, and/or are ethically compromised.
It’s only ethically compromised if you’re foolish enough to think Capitalism is a moral system and that property rights are not subordinate to utility. (Yeah I know that’s dangerous ground to tread (even if it’s true), but as you’ll see below, my solution isn’t that radical, because I’m aware that it’s dangerous.) Furthermore, while it’s great at producing large volumes of goods, Capitalism with work-or-starve is already fundamentally ethically compromised, and therefore any complaints that “oh, it’s immoral to do something that isn’t pure Capitalism” are ungrounded.
Also quite frankly, unless you support giving the whole of the land of the United States of America back to the descendants of the natives, then you don’t really believe in transcendent moral property rights that are beyond the bounds of human invention and therefore systematic human alterations. Unlike other human beings themselves, who would continue to exist if we erased all our data and memories about them, allocated property rights as we know them would be almost totally gone if all the data about them were erased. They’re just a human invention - a useful one, but only a tool. (Yes, I know animals have territorial behaviors, but that isn’t property rights as we know it.)
As for solutions…
Across-the-board wage subsidies (edit: it’s a bit more complicated than that but you get the idea - not favoring specific industries) would not only avoid drawing the ire of economists, but allow society to lower the minimum wage dramatically (as many economic freedom types want - despite their ignoring the massive negotiating power disparity). Job choice would expand a great deal, putting a lot more bargaining power in the hands of low level workers. The program can be rolled out incrementally and reversed if it does not work - unlike socialist revolution. It promotes membership in the community and could help fix improverished regions such as inner cities, by reconnecting them to the normal societal status hierarchy instead of them being disconnected from it and inventing new status hierarchies that cause collateral damage. It would also help to get people off of welfare, and recover a portion of the economic value that would normally be lost to welfare payments.
As an aside, I’d argue the vast majority of folks who fall under 'economical unviable’ do so for reasons beyond actual economic concerns, and more to due with government intervention, but that’s largely my anarchism, I suspect.
I can’t say I agree there. It’s far too convenient for your worldview to simply ignore the effects of disability, mental illness, and age, and simply handwave it all away as the fault of the state.
