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See, that’s what the app is perfect for.

Sounds perfect Wahhhh, I don’t wanna
slatestarscratchpad
slatestarscratchpad:
“ oligopsonoia:
“ evilelitest2:
“ therealnui:
“ xhxhxhx:
“ disexplications:
“okay, now you’re just screwing with me
”
thermostatic public opinion is a bitch
”
@evilelitest2 Why do you think this is? With Orange’s isolationist and...
disexplications

okay, now you’re just screwing with me

xhxhxhx

thermostatic public opinion is a bitch

therealnui

@evilelitest2 Why do you think this is? With Orange’s isolationist and xenophobic plans you’d think that percentage would go down right?

evilelitest2

The thing is, most Americans don’t even understand how trade works or what it is, so they don’t really have consistent solid opinions of it.  Basically if their personal economic situation is good and the president says “Trade is good” then they like trade.  If the economy crashes, then they will go “Trade was great, fucking anti trade president” if the economy does well they will say “Yes, tursn out he was right, fuck trade”  most people don’t know what Trade is so their opinions on the matter will change depending on the moment 

oligopsonoia

but general optimism about the economy hasn’t rebounded that much, has it?

maybe trump’s being unpopular causes opinions (such as trade skepticism) associated with him to sink as well? though i’m not sure if that’s supported by the timing of the graph there

slatestarscratchpad

I think Trump really is responsible for this. Eventually I want to write an SSC post presenting more evidence, but here’s some preliminaries:

Some data on immigration attitudes I cobbled together from a couple of different polls on CNN. The dashed line is a different poll than the solid line but the two polls matched pretty well when I had data for both. It looks like there’s an unusual deviation from the trend, in favor of immigrants, right when Trump started campaigning.

Ratio of people who prefer amnesty to deportation for illegal immigrants. Again, people became a lot less accepting of deportation right about when the Trump campaign started.

I think two things are going on here:

First, most people don’t like Trump - remember, he lost the popular vote to the least-popular Democratic candidate ever.  These policies are associated with Trump, so now people are against these policies. It’s the same as all those Republicans who hated Obamacare but liked (the broadly identical) Romneycare. The strongest form of this is that now that the media has convinced us there’s an “alt-right” and many people are in it, everyone is tripping over themselves trying to signal that they’re not “alt-right”-ists. We’ve all read that study about “extreme protests” by now, and in a sense the Trump movement is the most extreme “protest” of all.

Second, ever since Trump started focusing on these issues, the anti-Trump media (ie the entire media except Breitbart and maybe Fox) has been going into overdrive talking about how great foreign trade is, how immigration is at the center of what it means to be an American, and so on.

This was predictable and I predicted it (see eg Part VII here). And it’s why, when the issues I care about get coded conservative (eg free speech), I keep trying to convince conservatives not to bring them up. God help us if the Culture Wars ever start centering on free speech as thoroughly as they’re centering on immigration right now.

mitigatedchaos

Also, Trump didn’t promise to eliminate trade, he promised to “get better trade deals”, which may be confounding this.  If they actually do something about the trade deals and this potential net flow of goods or whatever tax, the trade deficit might start to balance out, and trade would no longer be as threatening to those workers.

Source: disexplications politics trump