Solution to the previous anon: GTFO those two...

Tags Now:

#the iron hand - the State
#the invisible fist - Capitalism
#the red hammer - Communism
#thx xhxhxhx - you know who you are @xhxhxhx
#chronofelony - time travel
#mitigated future - futurism
#art+#oc - hand-made, free-range, gluten-free, organic, locally-sourced PNGs
#shtpost - quality, 100% serious post, always repost this
#politics - elaborate joke post, never repost this
#trump cw - self-filter tag for anti-memeist bigots who are prejudiced against our first Meme-American President due to the orange color of his skin

#discourse preview 2019 - retrocausal posts from the New Mexico Timeline

#nationalism - posts banned under the 2089 Human Dignity Act of the Earth Sphere Federation, filtering these is recommended for normies and anyone who isn’t a NatSep

#augmented reality break - (alternate (reality) break) tag intersection, but with coffee so it’s better and therefore augmented (like me)

Future Tags (Vegas Timeline):

#this week on woke or broke - exciting new youtube show in which contestants try to guess what is social justice orthodoxy and what was cooked up by the producers. failing contestants are fired from their jobs

#miti draws dallas - performance art piece in which thousands of teleoperated drones are released in a swarm over Dallas, Texas, and pictures of frightened and heavily-armed Texans are posted to Tumblr in five minute intervals

#super love love demon battle - SLLDB fandom drama. eventually boils over into discussion of the SLLDB fandom murders

#HobbesWasRight - series of articles laying out the philosophical groundwork for Googlezon Dynamics’ Leviathan Project and its benefits for the security of the state and the populace

#dogs - dog photos and canine cybernetic augmentations. also ferrets, to go with the ferret mistagging fad

#national technocracy - hypothetical point within the N-dimensional ideospace lattice originally theorized by RAND Geospatial Dynamics Working Group in the 1950s, generally summarized as “that thing that comes after prediction markets”, many researchers dispute whether it can actually exist. abandoned by Silicon Valley CEOs in favor of a system based on Facebook likes.

#dogfree - actual dog photos, just dog photos

Future Tags (Montana Timeline):

No tags for this timeline, possibly unstable. Radsuit suggested.

chronofelony mitigated fiction augmented reality break mitigated future shtpost or is it tags

argumate

“Movies will be free after the revolution!”

Movies take the work of hundreds, sometimes thousands, of people. How will we decide where to allocate our resources for the best results?

shlevy

Centralized committee!

argumate

Yes! The State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television smiles upon you!

mitigatedchaos

shtpost visual shtpost the mitigated exhibition what even is this blog the invisible fist the iron hand the red hammer

argumate

All the NTSB recommendations are technically trade offs that have costs; consider American Airlines Flight 191 which crashed on take off killing everyone on board and two people on the ground after an engine separated from the wing due to improper maintenance procedures had cracked the pylon.

While 273 people may have died, the improper shortcuts taken during engine maintenance saved 200 man hours per aircraft! Why, the meddling FAA banning this procedure may have done more harm than the original crash!

mitigatedchaos

Nah it’s alright fam,

If we assume that the GDP per capita is $55,000, and that the typical passenger has 35 working years remaining, we can just have the state bill the company and its shareholders $525,525,000 and put them into debt bondage and sell off their assets if they are unwilling or unable to pay.

Now you may object to the state rolling around and charging huge sums of money as payment for accidental deaths, but I have it on good authority that everyone signed over their trusteeship to the state rather than get kicked into the ocean, entirely of their own free will. Quite remarkable, really. So I assure that this plan is entirely Capitalist.

death shtpost the invisible fist the iron hand policy politics

mitigatedchaos

Tags Now:

#the iron hand - the State
#the invisible fist - Capitalism
#the red hammer - Communism
#thx xhxhxhx - you know who you are @xhxhxhx
#chronofelony - time travel
#mitigated future - futurism
#art+#oc - hand-made, free-range, gluten-free, organic, locally-sourced PNGs
#shtpost - quality, 100% serious post, always repost this
#politics - elaborate joke post, never repost this
#trump cw - self-filter tag for anti-memeist bigots who are prejudiced against our first Meme-American President due to the orange color of his skin

#discourse preview 2019 - retrocausal posts from the New Mexico Timeline

#nationalism - posts banned under the 2089 Human Dignity Act of the Earth Sphere Federation, filtering these is recommended for normies and anyone who isn’t a NatSep

#augmented reality break - (alternate (reality) break) tag intersection, but with coffee so it’s better and therefore augmented (like me)

Future Tags (Vegas Timeline):

#this week on woke or broke - exciting new youtube show in which contestants try to guess what is social justice orthodoxy and what was cooked up by the producers. failing contestants are fired from their jobs

#miti draws dallas - performance art piece in which thousands of teleoperated drones are released in a swarm over Dallas, Texas, and pictures of frightened and heavily-armed Texans are posted to Tumblr in five minute intervals

#super love love demon battle - SLLDB fandom drama. eventually boils over into discussion of the SLLDB fandom murders

#HobbesWasRight - series of articles laying out the philosophical groundwork for Googlezon Dynamics’ Leviathan Project and its benefits for the security of the state and the populace

#dogs - dog photos and canine cybernetic augmentations. also ferrets, to go with the ferret mistagging fad

#national technocracy - hypothetical point within the N-dimensional ideospace lattice originally theorized by RAND Geospatial Dynamics Working Group in the 1950s, generally summarized as “that thing that comes after prediction markets”, many researchers dispute whether it can actually exist. abandoned by Silicon Valley CEOs in favor of a system based on Facebook likes.

#dogfree - actual dog photos, just dog photos

Future Tags (Montana Timeline):

No tags for this timeline, possibly unstable. Radsuit suggested.

mitigatedchaos

New Tags:

#the mitigated exhibition - collection of 2-dimensional pixel arrays hand-crafted by Tibetan space monks (according to product packaging)

#one thousand villages - militarized bus maps and civil defense planning for the city of Springrock, Arkowa

#urban planning - development plans for Hypersuburb One

#gendpol - (exploration of) Neurotype Space with Social Characteristics

#racepol - unsuspecting visitors are painted exciting new colours in this avant-garde art installation

#otv game - greyskin politics discussion tag

#私 - 自分がない。

#ミチは日本語を話します。 - Non-existent post category. Forget you ever saw this.

#this is a joke - leaked document from the Trump Administration, forward to WaPo & HuffBuzz

#the year is - descriptions for movies retroactively deleted from the timestream

#flagpost - stealth post, only you can see it (yes you, specifically)

Future Tags (Boston Timeline):

#orly - series of interviews with rogue VN AI Orliana Reilly

#owlpocalypse2k18 - Melbourne comes to a halt as experimental Google mosquito suppression project causes owl duplication glitch and residents are lagged off of the server

#the coming mouse utopia - new tag originates following dramatic shift in Alt Right interests towards mouse ethnostate, surprising all observers (except me)

#baka baka baka - flagging tag for bot which prints out all mitigated chaos Tumblr posts and air drops them inside the US Congress building

my tags

@argumate @collapsedsquid

The thing I like about the idea of mandatory safety insurance is that it introduces a new actor with new incentives into the problem.

Let us return to aircraft.

The State has determined that every airline company must carry two million dollars in insurance per passenger per flight, to be paid out in the event that the plane is destroyed and they die. It has set certain rules, for instance that the insurance company must be sufficiently well-capitalized and it can’t just waive paying out because the company did something stupid.

Executive Todd has plans to reduce the maintenance on Tumblr Airlines aircraft. He will be at the company for five years. There is a 90% chance that if he does this, there will be no crash, and he gets a million dollar bonus and leaves. There is a 10% chance that a plane will crash before he leaves and he’ll only have a personal fortune of ten million dollars and a mansion on Hawaii left, which he can retire to.

So Todd orders that the maintenance should be cut.

However, Blue Hellsite Insurance, Inc., Tumblr Airlines’ insurance company, depends for its funding entirely on carefully calculating risk and then charging a bit more than that, on an ongoing basis. To do so, as part of their contract (and thanks to provisions passed in law by the State), they can set insurance agents out to inspect processes, planes, and so on.

BHI’s reaction to a plan that results in a 10% chance of a plane crash is “you WHAT?!” Whereas the risk isn’t necessarily quite so visible or quantified to all others in the organization, or else they may have motivations to ignore it for the same reason as Executive Todd.

So BHI come back and say that either Todd’s plan isn’t going to fly, or the insurance rates are going to go up.

So what was an invisible cost that could have gotten kicked down the road to a successor is transmuted into a stubborn operating cost right now.

Tumblr Airlines makes less profit (upsetting shareholders), raises ticket prices to compensate (thus pricing the risk into the market and making them less competitive), or else doesn’t go through with the plan.

The State could even require that the portion of the cost which is the risk premium is printed on the ticket, informing consumers of roughly how dangerous a given flight is. This is actually an enormous information gain by consumers, who as non-experts find it very difficult to not only judge airline safety, but obtain inside information about aircraft maintenance procedures.

the invisible fist policy the iron hand

argumate

The hard part about assessing the counterfactuals to Chinese repression is that a minor flare up of civil strife can easily kill fifty million people; balancing things like that against the insidious ongoing costs of poor resource allocation is hard.

mitigatedchaos

Yeeeeeah kinda hoping there’s no new Chinese Civil War that ends up killing fifty million dudes and destroying one tenth of the global GDP, sending the economy of Earth into three decade long depression.

the iron hand the invisible fist chronofelony but also serious

mitigatedchaos

@argumate @collapsedsquid

The thing I like about the idea of mandatory safety insurance is that it introduces a new actor with new incentives into the problem.

Let us return to aircraft.

The State has determined that every airline company must carry two million dollars in insurance per passenger per flight, to be paid out in the event that the plane is destroyed and they die. It has set certain rules, for instance that the insurance company must be sufficiently well-capitalized and it can’t just waive paying out because the company did something stupid.

Executive Todd has plans to reduce the maintenance on Tumblr Airlines aircraft. He will be at the company for five years. There is a 90% chance that if he does this, there will be no crash, and he gets a million dollar bonus and leaves. There is a 10% chance that a plane will crash before he leaves and he’ll only have a personal fortune of ten million dollars and a mansion on Hawaii left, which he can retire to.

So Todd orders that the maintenance should be cut.

However, Blue Hellsite Insurance, Inc., Tumblr Airlines’ insurance company, depends for its funding entirely on carefully calculating risk and then charging a bit more than that, on an ongoing basis. To do so, as part of their contract (and thanks to provisions passed in law by the State), they can set insurance agents out to inspect processes, planes, and so on.

BHI’s reaction to a plan that results in a 10% chance of a plane crash is “you WHAT?!” Whereas the risk isn’t necessarily quite so visible or quantified to all others in the organization, or else they may have motivations to ignore it for the same reason as Executive Todd.

So BHI come back and say that either Todd’s plan isn’t going to fly, or the insurance rates are going to go up.

So what was an invisible cost that could have gotten kicked down the road to a successor is transmuted into a stubborn operating cost right now.

Tumblr Airlines makes less profit (upsetting shareholders), raises ticket prices to compensate (thus pricing the risk into the market and making them less competitive), or else doesn’t go through with the plan.

The State could even require that the portion of the cost which is the risk premium is printed on the ticket, informing consumers of roughly how dangerous a given flight is. This is actually an enormous information gain by consumers, who as non-experts find it very difficult to not only judge airline safety, but obtain inside information about aircraft maintenance procedures.

mitigatedchaos

@e8u What about Todd the Insurance Executive?

An astute observation. I actually left off that part in order to conserve length.

This entire scenario still depends on state intervention, which is why AnCaps and most Right Libertarians will not be in favor of it, even though it loosens the details of regulation to the markets and allows riskier behavior (but just prices it more).

Here’s what the State needs to do to cause this to happen:

Require mandatory insurance on certain classes of products.
Determine the rules governing the insurance so that the insurance will actually pay out.

For instance, wrongdoing on the part of the airline does not get the insurance company out of paying the insurance. (It could, however, allow them to pursue damages against the airline without breaking these necessary conditions.)

Ensure the insurance companies are sufficiently well-capitalized, so that it does not become common practice to make insurance shell companies which immediately fold rather than pay out. Criminal liability may need to be introduced here.
Create a court system in which it is reasonably feasible for regular people to actually collect the insurance payout. (It isn’t necessary that they collect the full payout, just enough that they’re willing to initiate and complete the necessary legal procedures. Some money could go into an ethical offset fund instead.)

I would say that there have to actually be enough competing insurance companies, but the market will take care of that, since this should be a reasonably profitable field. And the insurance company itself is a longer-term investment vehicle than the airline, since its practice of distributing risk changes when investors will get paid.

So, the question then is, is a system of competing insurance companies with competing insurance regulations more or less efficient and effective than a system of top-down, politically-driven regulation where government decides the details of regulations?

And that question is an empirical one. In systems as complex as economies, we can’t just assume the efficient market hypothesis. After all, this plan is in many ways in response to the existing market distortions of limited liability corporations and destruction of value being easier than creation of value.

Do it right, however, and you can also chip away at information asymmetry - the risk pricing by a moderately profitable insurance company that actually has to pay out if the product is dangerous or defective, as a share of the product’s price, communicates a lot of information that the customer previously often didn’t have.

the invisible fist the iron hand

argumate

some kinds of common knowledge are a massively valuable public good, and a centralised authority is typically the most efficient way of providing it.

collapsedsquid

It’s related to that idea that we all have time and love to comparison shop between everything. It’s basically saying “you’re going to get screwed by that crucial detail you didn’t know was important beforehand.“

argumate

and that you have the time and resources and are still alive to pursue damages through the court system against those with deep pockets who have screwed you over.

adjoint-law

I’d be interested to learn more about different models for decentralized accreditation services – consumer safety, etc. You see a little of this with professional guilds and etc I guess? But I’m not sure how much money you’d need to throw at meta accreditation to get good trust levels, or how much duplication of work you get in a free market of accreditation services, etc. It really does seem like a central authority is a good way to go…?

argumate

I think the tricky part is enforcement and incentives. Structural engineers were complaining about the cladding long before buildings started burning down, and fire fighters were shocked when they tried to put out the fires, but in order for that to translate into it not being sold, purchased, and installed on buildings there needs to be someone who says “no” when the architect says “cheap!”

mitigatedchaos

The thing that gets me with the Libertarianism thing and safety regs is that, precisely because of all the losses of information in the process and limited information resources available to buyers, I feel the regulation process really does have to bottom out somewhere with “men with guns come and say no, you can’t do that.”

And I know they hate that, but their plans often effectively give out huge subsidies in the form of unaccounted-for externalities, information asymmetry, and so on, to capital.

“Make them all buy insurance” requires a strong state to come through and force the issue and also make sure that that insurance will pay out. But if you don’t do at least that, then you allow people to engage in arbitrage against peoples’ lives (more than they do now). One could argue, even, about smoothing out lifetime earnings with loans to help pay for safety, but financial markets are waaaaaay too frictional for that and the future is too unknown.

So I don’t feel too bad about the building safety codes.

And some of the Asian countries prove you can have the building safety codes and even earthquake standards without the part that causes housing prices to quintuple.

the invisible fist the iron hand

See, that’s what the app is perfect for.

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