disexplications

Some interesting VOTER Survey data.

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The Five Types of Trump Voters is good too, if only for its frankly depressing portrait of the ‘Anti-Elites’:

Anti-Elites (19 percent) This group of Trump supporters leans economically progressive, believes the economic and political systems are rigged, and takes relatively more moderate positions on immigration, race, and American identity than American Preservationists. They are also the most likely group to favor political compromise.

Anti-Elites have relatively cooler feelings toward Donald Trump than American Preservationists, and nearly half had favorable opinions of Clinton in 2012. This group shifted most dramatically, however, against Clinton by November 2016. They were the least likely group to mobilize in the Republican primary, but of those who did, they disproportionately turned out for John Kasich.

Anti-Elites are middle-class voters with moderate levels of education, and they skew slightly younger than other Trump groups. They are the least likely group to own guns, go to church, and be politically informed.

Anti-Elites believe that moneyed and political elites take advantage of the system against ordinary people and they support increasing taxes on the wealthy. Compared to the American Preservationists, they take more moderate positions on immigration, race, American identity, religious traditionalism including gay marriage, and the environment. Why are they not Democrats? Perhaps because they take less liberal positions on legal immigration and the temporary Muslim travel ban. Democrats who moderate their positions on immigration might win over some Anti-Elite voters.

[…]

Anti-Elites constitute a large share of voters who only voted for Trump in the general election, but did not vote in the primaries. They lean economically progressive and are relatively more moderate on immigration, but are staunchly anti-elite.

The Anti-Elites are the least loyal Republicans of the Trump voters with nearly two-thirds (63 percent) who say they vote both for Democrats and Republicans in elections, a quarter who say they voted for Barack Obama in 2012, and nearly as many who say they identify as independent (42 percent) as Republican (47 percent).

They, along with the Free Marketeers, are the weakest supporters of Trump with only 26 percent having very favorable views—51 points lower than the American Preservationists. Four years ago, nearly twice this share (47 percent) had a favorable view of Clinton, but this number plummeted to a dismal 9 percent by 2016 (see Figure 11). While 78 percent have an unfavorable view of Clinton today, only 47 percent felt similarly toward Obama in 2012. Had a Democrat other than Clinton been on the ticket in 2016, Anti-Elites may have split their votes for him or her over Trump. Next to Trump, Anti-Elites were most likely to have voted for John Kasich (22 percent) in the early primaries. Thus, it comes as less of a surprise that this group split on the question of whether their vote was for Trump or against Clinton.

Today, 40 percent say they have favorable views of democratic socialist Senator Bernie Sanders. Might Sanders have peeled these voters away from Trump had he been the Democratic nominee? Possibly. Only 16 percent, however, say they would have voted for Sanders over Trump.

“Why are they not Democrats?“

mitigatedchaos

Compared to the American Preservationists, they take more moderate positions on immigration, race, American identity, religious traditionalism including gay marriage, and the environment. Why are they not Democrats? Perhaps because they take less liberal positions on legal immigration and the temporary Muslim travel ban.

Gee, doesn’t that sound familiar.