"would say worst idea but I think I should probably expect even worse ones." Different anon here, and I notice I am confused. Obviously war with NK would be horrifying-likely very heavy casualties (especially in Seoul) and diplomatic backlash. Yet a nuclear attack on the US is becoming increasingly likely-at some point, mightn't it be worth it? Better a war than getting nuked and fighting anyway, unless you're confident they won't use their missiles. Are you, and if so, why and how confident?

I am confident of that. I don’t think the NK regime actually is suicidal. The instances I have read of of political maneuvering by Kim Jong-un suggest absolutely no moral compass but plenty of attention to his image and consolidating his power and advancing his political goals. He’s not impulsive and he understands the geopolitics he’s operating in and he wants to stay in power. If NK seriously attacked the U.S. or Korea or anybody else with nuclear weapons he’s dead inside eight hours. I think there is basically zero chance he’ll do that. 

Most of the risk of nuclear war comes from people misinterpreting signs during a high-tension period, and going to war with North Korea honestly seems like the kind of thing that increases that risk, as it dramatically increases international tensions with other nuclear powers, means there are missiles flying and more potential for confusion, and generally weakens the U.S. yet further, which makes us worse at discouraging proliferation. I think overall the risk of nuclear war is substantially higher if we get into a messy, diplomatically disastrous, protracted mess in Korea now.

(I am less absolutely certain it’s a bad idea to just bomb their facilities for refining. It’s probably a bad idea but it has ever worked before and arguably depends on information you and I don’t have access to.)