1.5M ratings
277k ratings

See, that’s what the app is perfect for.

Sounds perfect Wahhhh, I don’t wanna
simonpenner
sadoeconomist

The House Obamacare replacement bill does nothing to end the primary problem with Obamacare, which is the wildly popular but also psychotic ban on rejecting people over pre-existing conditions.

Would you buy car insurance if you could buy it after you crashed your car and still get paid? Would you buy life insurance if your heirs could buy it after you died and have it pay out? Then why would anyone buy health insurance if you can buy it after you already get sick and still be covered? Obamacare’s answer to this was threatening people with the unconstitutional individual mandate ‘tax,’ but they wimped out on actually making the penalty steep enough to force compliance and they wound up putting the insurance industry into an adverse selection death spiral. The House’s answer is to give people tax credits for it, which also is completely inadequate to reverse the death spiral. Nobody is actually going to try to stop the government from destroying the health insurance market entirely. They are going to keep stumbling until they’re forced to institute a single-payer system as an emergency and we’re going to see highly inefficient non-price rationing for health care like in Europe.

At some point people are going to have to accept that we need to actually economize on health care or we will spend the entire GDP of the country on trying to keep everyone alive forever at any cost until the economy collapses. I don’t know that the public is going to ever get to that point though. The government is just going to destroy the market and then blame the market for being destroyed.

mitigatedchaos

Haha, the fact of the matter is that very few have good reason to trust that liberalization isn’t just economic handwaving to justify screwing them over for the benefit of the healthy and the wealthy. Why in the world would they trust you or people like you? Why should they comply with your plan? Normal people lack the tools to tell whether medical service is good! They’re irrational, forgetful, they don’t have perfect executive function, they don’t always have time let alone to learn enough to tell the difference and not get swamped by legalese created by companies to screw them.

You want to get this liberalization to go through? You need to take a lesson from Trump. You’re going to have to publicly sacrifice something very expensive to prove that you’re serious. Charity is NOT going to cut it.

sadoeconomist

Everything you just said applies many times over in the opposite direction

“ Haha, the fact of the matter is that very few have good reason to trust that regulation isn’t just economic handwaving to justify screwing them over for the benefit of the healthy and the wealthy. Why in the world would they trust you or people like you? Why should they comply with your plan? Legislators lack the tools to tell whether medical service is good! They’re irrational, forgetful, they don’t have perfect executive function, they don’t always have time let alone to learn enough to tell the difference and not get swamped by legalese created by companies to screw them.”

simonpenner

I find it very hard, in the general case, to see “giving people free stuff, but in a different way”, as screwing over. Given that a reasonable alternative is “you get nothing” (this is definitely reasonable, as people 60 years ago did not receive medical care from the state and nobody thinks this was screwing anything), why the hell should you be allowed to tar refactoring the system as “screwing”

mitigatedchaos

I’m guessing this applies to me and not SE…

That basically ignores the massive impact that both random chance and imbalances of power have on people.  Illness is largely not distributed in a meritocratic way, and even just staying employed in a Capitalist system can contribute to it.

Also, there was a post not long ago about normalizing private charity as the way to provide healthcare for those who can’t afford it, which implies that the alternative is indeed “you get nothing,” since there is no way that private charity will truly replace the cost.

Mostly, though, I don’t mind some level, quite possibly even a very significant level, of liberalization, but I’m seeking something from a basket of ideological trades.  Think of it in the vein of “you hate minimum wage because it lowers employment, I think we normally would need minimum wage because those at the bottom are often desperate (thus less negotiating power) and they have a minimum cost for survival, so let’s ideologically trade by lowering minimum wage while simultaneously issuing direct wage subsidies.”

Or having a well-regulated insurance requirement for worker safety or environmental damage by corporations, since causing damage is so much cheaper than fixing it, executives are gone before the damage actually hits, the company can cause more damage than it can ever pay back, etc, so not having a pot of money to solve it creates externalities…  That sort of thing.  Technically, it’s a kind of state intervention.  Technically, it’s a kind of wealth transfer.  Also, it pulls on optimization from markets in the hope of more accurately pricing the externalities of injuries/environmental damage/etc.  So is it a “market solution”?  Or is it evil Statism?  Etc.

Source: sadoeconomist politics
sadoeconomist
sadoeconomist

The House Obamacare replacement bill does nothing to end the primary problem with Obamacare, which is the wildly popular but also psychotic ban on rejecting people over pre-existing conditions.

Would you buy car insurance if you could buy it after you crashed your car and still get paid? Would you buy life insurance if your heirs could buy it after you died and have it pay out? Then why would anyone buy health insurance if you can buy it after you already get sick and still be covered? Obamacare’s answer to this was threatening people with the unconstitutional individual mandate ‘tax,’ but they wimped out on actually making the penalty steep enough to force compliance and they wound up putting the insurance industry into an adverse selection death spiral. The House’s answer is to give people tax credits for it, which also is completely inadequate to reverse the death spiral. Nobody is actually going to try to stop the government from destroying the health insurance market entirely. They are going to keep stumbling until they’re forced to institute a single-payer system as an emergency and we’re going to see highly inefficient non-price rationing for health care like in Europe.

At some point people are going to have to accept that we need to actually economize on health care or we will spend the entire GDP of the country on trying to keep everyone alive forever at any cost until the economy collapses. I don’t know that the public is going to ever get to that point though. The government is just going to destroy the market and then blame the market for being destroyed.

mitigatedchaos

Haha, the fact of the matter is that very few have good reason to trust that liberalization isn’t just economic handwaving to justify screwing them over for the benefit of the healthy and the wealthy. Why in the world would they trust you or people like you? Why should they comply with your plan? Normal people lack the tools to tell whether medical service is good! They’re irrational, forgetful, they don’t have perfect executive function, they don’t always have time let alone to learn enough to tell the difference and not get swamped by legalese created by companies to screw them.

You want to get this liberalization to go through? You need to take a lesson from Trump. You’re going to have to publicly sacrifice something very expensive to prove that you’re serious. Charity is NOT going to cut it.

sadoeconomist

Everything you just said applies many times over in the opposite direction

“ Haha, the fact of the matter is that very few have good reason to trust that regulation isn’t just economic handwaving to justify screwing them over for the benefit of the healthy and the wealthy. Why in the world would they trust you or people like you? Why should they comply with your plan? Legislators lack the tools to tell whether medical service is good! They’re irrational, forgetful, they don’t have perfect executive function, they don’t always have time let alone to learn enough to tell the difference and not get swamped by legalese created by companies to screw them.”

mitigatedchaos

Look.  You claim you want an efficient system, right?  Not just trading someone else’s increase in suffering for another $10,000 worth of luxury car for yourself, right?

I like an efficient system.  More healthcare can be purchased for the same amount of money in an efficient system.  But as far as I’m concerned, if the money just gets redistributed upwards it’s worthless to my goals, so I have no reason to free up those resources for the sole purpose of them being captured by the wealthy so they can plow them into political campaigns to further undermine public ownership of the state.

And I have no reason to believe that the people complaining about how they have to pay taxes to help those accursed poor single mother welfare recipients are really going to put an equivalent amount of money into charity.  Why would I?

But I do like efficiency, so I’m willing to make a trade.  If it’s really an efficiency solution, not just a cash grab for the upper class, then we can keep current healthcare spending, oh, or maybe a little lower, so let’s say on par with those evil European countries as a percentage of GDP, and cut everyone a check evenly just for healthcare funds.  Let them put it in a health savings account, spend it on insurance, maybe let the unspent health savings be inherited or something.  Collect %s of future checks to offset the costs of emergency care for the uninsured.

Maybe not a check, maybe that’s not the most efficient method in particular, but you get the idea.

If you’re willing to make that sacrifice or one like it, then, maybe I and others could believe that this is actually, really about efficiency.

(Edit: Also, on a side-note since it’s not really the core purpose of this post, as the core purpose is to offer that above ideological trade - legislators are actually paid to do legislation, and they have staffs and think-tanks that work for the parties at their disposal.  Specialization of labor doesn’t just apply to the private sector.  Individual citizens largely don’t have these things and the trust networks around them are different since there’s a lot of money to be made by scamming people (see: homeopathics are still a thing).  So there is some reason to believe that the political parties and legislators might outperform individuals.  Now, regulatory capture is an issue, but since the proposed solution tends to be “just let companies do whatever they want”, and that usually is the situation that caused regulation to come into existence in the first place, it often isn’t a real solution.  I think government itself can be designed much better, but others seem to either believe we don’t need to, or that it’s impossible, so…)

politics
slatestarscratchpad
slatestarscratchpad:
“ oligopsonoia:
“ evilelitest2:
“ therealnui:
“ xhxhxhx:
“ disexplications:
“okay, now you’re just screwing with me
”
thermostatic public opinion is a bitch
”
@evilelitest2 Why do you think this is? With Orange’s isolationist and...
disexplications

okay, now you’re just screwing with me

xhxhxhx

thermostatic public opinion is a bitch

therealnui

@evilelitest2 Why do you think this is? With Orange’s isolationist and xenophobic plans you’d think that percentage would go down right?

evilelitest2

The thing is, most Americans don’t even understand how trade works or what it is, so they don’t really have consistent solid opinions of it.  Basically if their personal economic situation is good and the president says “Trade is good” then they like trade.  If the economy crashes, then they will go “Trade was great, fucking anti trade president” if the economy does well they will say “Yes, tursn out he was right, fuck trade”  most people don’t know what Trade is so their opinions on the matter will change depending on the moment 

oligopsonoia

but general optimism about the economy hasn’t rebounded that much, has it?

maybe trump’s being unpopular causes opinions (such as trade skepticism) associated with him to sink as well? though i’m not sure if that’s supported by the timing of the graph there

slatestarscratchpad

I think Trump really is responsible for this. Eventually I want to write an SSC post presenting more evidence, but here’s some preliminaries:

Some data on immigration attitudes I cobbled together from a couple of different polls on CNN. The dashed line is a different poll than the solid line but the two polls matched pretty well when I had data for both. It looks like there’s an unusual deviation from the trend, in favor of immigrants, right when Trump started campaigning.

Ratio of people who prefer amnesty to deportation for illegal immigrants. Again, people became a lot less accepting of deportation right about when the Trump campaign started.

I think two things are going on here:

First, most people don’t like Trump - remember, he lost the popular vote to the least-popular Democratic candidate ever.  These policies are associated with Trump, so now people are against these policies. It’s the same as all those Republicans who hated Obamacare but liked (the broadly identical) Romneycare. The strongest form of this is that now that the media has convinced us there’s an “alt-right” and many people are in it, everyone is tripping over themselves trying to signal that they’re not “alt-right”-ists. We’ve all read that study about “extreme protests” by now, and in a sense the Trump movement is the most extreme “protest” of all.

Second, ever since Trump started focusing on these issues, the anti-Trump media (ie the entire media except Breitbart and maybe Fox) has been going into overdrive talking about how great foreign trade is, how immigration is at the center of what it means to be an American, and so on.

This was predictable and I predicted it (see eg Part VII here). And it’s why, when the issues I care about get coded conservative (eg free speech), I keep trying to convince conservatives not to bring them up. God help us if the Culture Wars ever start centering on free speech as thoroughly as they’re centering on immigration right now.

mitigatedchaos

Also, Trump didn’t promise to eliminate trade, he promised to “get better trade deals”, which may be confounding this.  If they actually do something about the trade deals and this potential net flow of goods or whatever tax, the trade deficit might start to balance out, and trade would no longer be as threatening to those workers.

Source: disexplications politics trump
sadoeconomist
sadoeconomist

The House Obamacare replacement bill does nothing to end the primary problem with Obamacare, which is the wildly popular but also psychotic ban on rejecting people over pre-existing conditions.

Would you buy car insurance if you could buy it after you crashed your car and still get paid? Would you buy life insurance if your heirs could buy it after you died and have it pay out? Then why would anyone buy health insurance if you can buy it after you already get sick and still be covered? Obamacare’s answer to this was threatening people with the unconstitutional individual mandate ‘tax,’ but they wimped out on actually making the penalty steep enough to force compliance and they wound up putting the insurance industry into an adverse selection death spiral. The House’s answer is to give people tax credits for it, which also is completely inadequate to reverse the death spiral. Nobody is actually going to try to stop the government from destroying the health insurance market entirely. They are going to keep stumbling until they’re forced to institute a single-payer system as an emergency and we’re going to see highly inefficient non-price rationing for health care like in Europe.

At some point people are going to have to accept that we need to actually economize on health care or we will spend the entire GDP of the country on trying to keep everyone alive forever at any cost until the economy collapses. I don’t know that the public is going to ever get to that point though. The government is just going to destroy the market and then blame the market for being destroyed.

mitigatedchaos

Haha, the fact of the matter is that very few have good reason to trust that liberalization isn’t just economic handwaving to justify screwing them over for the benefit of the healthy and the wealthy. Why in the world would they trust you or people like you? Why should they comply with your plan? Normal people lack the tools to tell whether medical service is good! They’re irrational, forgetful, they don’t have perfect executive function, they don’t always have time let alone to learn enough to tell the difference and not get swamped by legalese created by companies to screw them.

You want to get this liberalization to go through? You need to take a lesson from Trump. You’re going to have to publicly sacrifice something very expensive to prove that you’re serious. Charity is NOT going to cut it.

politics
bambamramfan
Humans are perfectly rational actors and no one would ever act to trick someone into signing a contract stating that they did not own their own dog. And if someone were vulnerable to that, they would deserve it, because even the smallest lapse in...
mitigatedchaos

Humans are perfectly rational actors and no one would ever act to trick someone into signing a contract stating that they did not own their own dog.  And if someone were vulnerable to that, they would deserve it, because even the smallest lapse in judgment is worthy of infinite punishment, because contracts are sacrosanct and worth far more that life or happiness.

Right?

grumbling politics
immanentizingeschatons
mitigatedchaos

Technically under Anarcho-Capitalism, it isn’t against the rules to create a really elaborate Communism theme park.

immanentizingeschatons

(disclaimer: am not an economist, middleish epistemic status, etc.)

Indeed, and this is a common argument used in their favor, which fair enough, but the problem is socialism is expensive, and unless they start out in control of a very large chunk of wealth and resources after the Revolution, they are not going to be able to accumulate enough to help everyone, like they could if they could redistribute property- after all, nothing like this has formed already, and AFAICT there is no law against it, atleast not everywhere…

mitigatedchaos

Honestly, I was just joking about how hilarious it would be to find Marxland™ in Ancapistan, complete with ironic Stalin posters and Modernist/Brutalist architecture.

I don’t actually want to live in or anywhere near the nightmare that Ancapistan would be.  I don’t even want to live in the society AnCaps think Ancapistan would be.

Source: mitigatedchaos politics
collapsedsquid
mitigatedchaos

I reasoned the PC stuff was like antibiotic resistance in bacteria.  It doesn’t matter today, it doesn’t matter tomorrow, but one day, 30 years from now, multi-drug-resistant TB develops and the problems pile on and on from there.  

…but if you can keep developing new antibiotics fast enough to keep up with it, you can sort-of ignore your bad practices and the collateral damage they cause.  

I thought that’s what was happening, and that the reckoning wasn’t going to be until 2028, as the result of a slowly building fire of, well, various mens’ movements refusing to comply with male gender roles (something already in progress at the fringes).  Instead the tension was lurking beneath the surface across multiple axes, but the media didn’t want to talk about it and people would be socially punished for talking about it sometimes, so it wasn’t as visible.

I’d like to think there is some new path where the word “Racism” can be made powerful again, but I cannot find it.  It would require socially punishing false accusations of racism, which simply isn’t feasible under the current ideological framework.  I’m not one to buy into the “Contradictions of $Ideology” idea much, (since most of the people pushing it are Communists ignoring the ‘contradictions’ essentially inevitable to their own system,) but I think this is partially a case of that.

In some ways I welcome the Populism, though.  My estimate of corporate oligarchy and permanent majority has declined significantly.

politics trump identity politics
collapsedsquid
collapsedsquid

Really says something that now I sort all political commentary I read into  “Pre-Trump“ and “Post-Trump.“

collapsedsquid

mitigatedchaos said: Did you at least give Trump a 15%+ chance of winning the election?                            

I hate to give odds on stuff like that because it drives me nuts, but to me the “Trump era” starts well before the election. I’m defining it as the moment when we knew that “Trumpism” was something that existed and was more than marginally popular in the US.

Even if Hillary had won or probably even if Cruz had squeaked out the nomination, it would have changed shit.  The political writing reflects that.

argumate

What about all the people who were going nuts for Palin in 2008?

collapsedsquid

Palin didn’t go through the primary.  We could all say that she basically didn’t matter. She was just this weird VP that McCain chose and didn’t take seriously.  Trump was chosen directly by primary voters, the fact that he could win says something.

mitigatedchaos

I would tend to agree on Palin.  I haven’t seen excitement for Palin like I have for Trump.

There are so many things that allowed this to happen, and I think many of them would have been preventable if people, uh, behaved better.  I don’t mean this as a virtue critique of the Trump voters, but rather the opposite.  Overuse of terms like “racism”, ignoring the plight of American workers, not reaching out to areas outside the cities, focusing primarily on minority demographics, talking about “demographic destiny” with glee, and so on.

@collapsedsquid My question was mostly to ping whether you were aware of these looming things beforehand, and if so, for how long.  While I saw “sexism” being overused as a term, I didn’t really realize just how thin it had worn outside of internet communities.  However, the further they got into the primary, the more I said “this is unpredictable, so I’m revising the chance of a Trump win upwards”.

politics trump
sinesalvatorem

Something To Live For

sinesalvatorem

Human psychology continues to be basically what I’d predict - while still being startling at the same time. Specifically, getting people to settle down in families is a shockingly good way to make them stop being dangerously antisocial:

It was the most elite unit we [ie: The Palestinian Liberation Organisation] had. The members were suicidal – not in the sense of religious terrorists who surrender their lives to ascend to heaven but in the sense that we could send them anywhere to do anything and they were prepared to lay down their lives to do it. No question. No hesitation. They were absolutely dedicated and absolutely ruthless.

“My host, who was one of Abu Iyad’s most trusted deputies, was charged with devising a solution. For months both men thought of various ways to solve the Black September problem, discussing and debating what they could possibly do, short of killing all these young men, to stop them from committing further acts of terror.

Finally they hit upon an idea. Why not simply marry them off? In other words, why not find a way to give these men – the most dedicated, competent, and implacable fighters in the entire PLO - a reason to live rather than to die? Having failed to come up with any viable alternatives, the two men put their plan in motion.“

“So approximately a hundred of these beautiful young women were brought to Beirut. There, in a sort of PLO version of a college mixer, boy met girl, boy fell in love with girl, boy would, it was hoped, marry girl. There was an additional incentive, designed to facilitate not just amorous connections but long-lasting relationships. The hundred or so Black Septemberists were told that if they married these women, they would be paid $3,000; given an apartment in Beirut with a gas stove, a refrigerator, and a television; and employed by the PLO in some nonviolent capacity. Any of these couples that had a baby within a year would be rewarded with an additional $5,000.

Both Abu Iyad and the future general worried that their scheme would never work. But, as the general recounted, without exception the Black Septemberists fell in love, got married, settled down, and in most cases started a family…the general explained, not one of them would agree to travel abroad, for fear of being arrested and losing all that they had – that is, being deprived of their wives and children. And so, my host told me, that is how we shut down Black September and eliminated terrorism. It is the only successful case that I know of.”

I’m a crazy romantic and even I didn’t expect that tying guys like these down with wives and kids would have such a radical civilising effect. I wonder if this has any implications for gangs or other violent pests?

mitigatedchaos

If that’s the case though, then polygyny is a bad thing unless you want large numbers of risk-tolerant men.

politics religion