What can you see
Wrapping up this weekend of posts talking about the future, I’d like to ask a question.
A few weeks ago someone pointed out that the anti-SJW crowd is so cavalier towards Trump because they can’t really imagine our country ending up anywhere to the right of where we currently are. There might be some policy change in the tax rate, but fundamentally, campus activists will be arguing for corporations and the US government to stop oppressing numerous identities, and corps and the gov will condescendingly humor them.
Which sounded accurate (especially as rightists would argue I was wrong about things, but not actually deny that particular mindset,) but it raised a broader question - can any of us imagine a significantly different future than now?
Think about the strangeness of today’s situation. Thirty, forty years ago, we were still debating about what the future will be: communist, fascist, capitalist, whatever. Today, nobody even debates these issues. We all silently accept global [liberal democratic capitalism] is here to stay. On the other hand, we are obsessed with cosmic catastrophes: the whole life on earth disintegrating, because of some virus, because of an asteroid hitting the earth, and so on. So the paradox is, that it’s much easier to imagine the end of all life on earth than a much more modest radical change in [liberal democratic capitalism] . - Zizek
So what does everyone reading this think things will look like ten, twenty, or thirty years from now? Yes we can joke a lot about potential disaster scenarios (apocalypse, Big Brother, fast takeoff, the Social Justice Internationale) but uh, seriously, what do you think that will look like? What would living in it be like?
Do you think a fascist takeover no-for-real is likely? Will there be an underground? What will happen to the internet? Will we go backwards on racial justice and if so in what ways?
On the other side, does anyone think the forces of progressivism can win? Not just keep their head above water, but actually establish enough equality to make racism and sexism less pressing issues? What the hell does that look like?
Or even if your a techno-utopian who thinks some of these life changing developments (immortality, super AI, brain upload) will happen within 30 years, what will that uptake practically look like? Will everyone in the world get it on day 1? If not, how will it be distributed? How long will it take before more than the 10% richest people in the world benefit from it? 50%? Everyone? In the interim what does a world with radically powerful technologies in only the hand of a few look like to you?
I want to be more imaginative, and have at least some idea of what a medium-term future is that isn’t just more “Democrats and Republicans without progress fight and young people whine about it on the internet.” But do we even have the capability to take it seriously?
If you like, I could brainstorm some more exotic alternate futures.
In practical terms, however, I think the tech won’t be addressed until it is closer and looms in the public imagination. Same with lots of other issues.
Sorry if I was unclear (to @wirehead-wannabe too.) I mean what do you really think is a likely possibility for the 10-30 year timeframe.
A lot of decisions to pursue the normal career path don’t really make sense if you think within 20 years the world will look like a crapsack. And if you think fascism is really coming, writing easily search criticism of it is also a bad idea (same for if you really believed the Left was going to be sending enemies to the gulag.) Investing in retirement vehicles or long term assets would be absurd.
But most people don’t, and they act as if they are preparing for a life of perpetual liberal capitalism. I guess I can only think of survivalists or MIRI not fitting that, but I’m sure there are plenty of other groups putting their money where there mouth is.
What are non-liberal futures you see that you think might really happen, enough to consider life choices around?
Actually, as a combination of technological developments, lack of resource shortages so far, and the election of Trump, my estimates of the risks of global nuclear war and total collapse have gone down, even though my estimates of necessity of geoengineering have gone up. I was wanting to increase my level of survivability, and I still do to a degree, but less so now.
Which is basically the opposite of the Left’s reaction to him. But I’m a Nationalist (though I did not vote for Trump), and Trump’s election felt unreal - the Establishment was freaking out about him, even on the Right. So that meant it actually is possible to break out of the Establishment and its goals, possibly even lower the amount of unnecessary war, maybe.
If he is successful, Trump may shift the Republicans into a sort of Populist party that cares less about wedge social issues and less about raw exploitation and exporting all of the nation’s intellectual property/capital for short-term gains now. We’re seeing movement on the H1B issue, which was something big business desperately wanted, so while my estimate of environmental risks has gone down, my estimate of indestructible corporate oligarchy has also gone down (even as it went up for most leftists).
Don’t discount the possibility that Trump will be somewhat successful. His immigration plan is going to tighten the labor market, and non-citizen immigrants don’t get to vote. He also isn’t fundamentally committed to hard right capitalist policies economically.
The most probable non-liberal outcome for the United States is a military coup after some combination of factors. Leftists lack the power to conduct a violent overthrow of the government, and the power of the US military is immense. I don’t think it would be a civil war. I also wouldn’t expect the coup forces to be hard right or to be sympathetic to hard racism - rather to just continue to let racial problems go unresolved. Likewise, they wouldn’t be Communist, but probably some kind of Capitalist economic Nationalists with some eventual level of corruption. The coup would lower economic output, but probably not wipe out all savings.
(Edit: I think the coup forces might target Muslims, but I think other groups such as Hindus and Buddhists would be left alone. (People worry about Islam spreading and undermining all of society, but only worry about Hindus as competition for jobs, which is way less pressure.) One of the groups at risk are Chinese immigrants, depending on the actions of the PRC and if it becomes way more dangerous than it currently is, instead of starting to succumb to the problems it has allowed to build up. Gays probably wouldn’t be pushed on too hard since they’re already in the military, and might even be used as a justification to exclude Muslims. They are even some transgender veterans, though they would be at higher risk.)
It’s also possible that California may leave the Union for real - the difference in values is increasing. If they do, I think they’ll be let go, and maybe the rest of the West coast will follow them. In this case, the US will start to be split into multiple countries and will shift right politically without the heavy blue weight of California.
