Oceans Yet to Burn

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

[kissingerandpals]

Stop with the president Zuckerberg memes, you guys don’t know how dangerous memes can be in bending the fabric of reality

[mitigatedchaos]

Okay, so not joking:

I think Trump can beat Zuck, and I think the Democrats (or rather the party leadership) are currently, uh, clueless enough to pick him.  I don’t think the rank’n’files want him.

I do think he’s positioning himself to run.  It’s going to be an uphill battle seeing as he’s a white male tech billionaire, and not even a cool one like Elon Musk.

Trump’s going to be tougher to beat than he looks.  It depends in part of how much legislation he can get passed and how much of the GOP elite he can shift - particularly during the mid-terms.  The Trump base want to use the mid-terms for that purpose.

By the time we get to 2022, I think some of the Democratic leadership will have changed, and conditions will be less favorable for The Zuck.

I put 70% Zuck goes for it, 30% he gets the nomination if he does, and 30% he gets the Presidency if he gets the nomination, for about ~6% chance.

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

[diarrheaworldstarhiphop]

There is a strong correlation between immigration—particularly illegal immigration—and wages.  This should be obvious to anyone familiar with the fundamental principle of supply and demand: more supply (workers) means lower prices (wages), and vice versa.

Despite the fact that this correlation between immigration and wages is well-documented, it is not obvious to many liberal economists, who see immigration as an unfettered economic benefit.  The evidence suggests otherwise, including a new data reported by Fox.

According to the National Association of Home Builders, more than 56% of America’s developers are reporting labor shortages, which is forcing them to increases wages and improve working conditions to attract new talent.

In fact, according to Ted Wilson of Residential Strategies Inc. construction costs have risen by 30% this year—the majority of which is due to higher wages and increased overtime pay.  That is, companies are being forced to hire American workers, and pay wages at fair market value.

Why?

Because President Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is preventing them from hiring illegal aliens, who undercut the labor market, shortchanging American workers.  The impact of this (while often ignored) is significant.

According to Stan Market, CEO of Texas’ Marek, “half of the workers in construction in Texas are undocumented.”

He goes on to say that many of them are leaving Texas, either to find refuge in sanctuary cities and states, and “many of them are going back to Mexico.”

This is good news for American workers, who have been hammered in recent decades.  In fact, real wages have not risen for the median American worker since 1973, in part because of the deflationary effects of illegal immigration.

And just to be clear, this is not an isolated event—wages will rise in tandem with deportations and other labor restrictions (such as if, and when, the RAISE Act becomes law).

We know this because it’s happening elsewhere already.  For example, the restriction of temporary work visas in Maine earlier this year led to higher wages, better working conditions, and lower unemployment—all good for the average American citizen.

[mitigatedchaos]

Look, I know you guys all think this is evil.  And it’s probably not preferable to ending jus soli and issuing more legitimate agricultural visas/etc.

But despite all the people on Facebook talking about how the guy is a nightmare monster from the darkest dreams of the Alt Right come to life, I’m telling you right now that he has a non-trivial chance of re-election unless the Democrats get their shit together.

I pegged it at 50% earlier, reduced it to 40%, but it isn’t a 10% chance or less.

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

[thathopeyetlives]

Pope Francis is meeting with Trump.

Hopefully he is the man who can break his pride. Perhaps it is for this that he was born, that he became a hierarch.

[wirehead-wannabe]

Doubtful, but at least we’ll probably get some good memes

[mitigatedchaos]

“The ratings!”  Trump declared, “the ratings are incredible!”

5% probability it’s the goal of the entire Meme-American Presidency.

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

[argumate]

the ultimate preexisting condition is being born American, hyuk hyuk hyuk

[mitigatedchaos]

You know I’ve revised my estimate for Trump 2020 down to 40% over this (and other considerations).

[Oceans Yet to Burn]

2020

Just for the record, regarding immigration issues: I feel that the current rate of roughly 1,000,000 immigrants per year is roughly acceptable for the United States.  (My statements elsewhere might have implied that I thought this was too high.)  I’m not particularly worried about most of the categories of immigrants currently arriving in the US.  I could be convinced for a higher number under certain conditions I won’t elaborate on now, partially because I don’t think they can credibly be offered due to political conditions in the United States, including ideological pre-commitments.

I predict at 80% that Trump will not lower the yearly immigration level below 800,000 by the year 2020.

I cannot accurately forecast the numbers on refugees.  The Trump administration originally planned to be more selective about refugee groups (particularly persecuted religious groups that are religious minorities in their country of origin), so we may see them make a grab for Christian refugees from ISIS, supposing some sort of support infrastructure (such as American churches) were set up to take them.  Alternatively, they may not, and the number of refugee admissions may crash.  I predict at 60% that average annual refugee admissions from 2017-2020 will be lower than under the Obama administration.

I predict at 80% that there will not be a new American Middle Eastern war by 2020, so long as Trump remains President and there is no major attack on US soil, defined as an ideologically-motivated terrorist attack with a death count exceeding 100.  (For the purposes of this prediction, American forces returning to Iraq and Afghanistan does not count as a new war.)

I predict at 80% that at least one more Sikh is going to get killed by some moron in America for ideological reasons before 2020.

I predict at 70% that one person will die from either Antifa violence, or violence by Antifa rivals by 2020, and this will make the national news.  I predict at 90% that this will not be intentional.